Working Papers 2014

44_14 Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs
Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney Strachan

43_14 Modelling Inflation Volatility
Eric Eisenstat & Rodney Strachan

42_14 The Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Modelling the Interest Rate
Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney Strachan

41_14 Nowcasting Scottish GDP Growth
Grant Allan & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Paul Smith

40_14 Large Bayesian VARMAs
Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop

39_14 Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models
Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis

38_14 The Known Unknowns of Governance
Rodolphe Desbordes & Gary Koop

37_14 Market Sentiment and Exchange Rate Directional Forecasting
Vasilios Plakandaras & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Konstantinos Diamantaras

36_14 Modeling Covariance Breakdowns in Multivariate GARCH
Xin Jin & John M. Maheu

35_14 Convergence of European Business Cycles: A Complex Networks Approach
Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Georgios-Antonios Sarantitis

34_14 Bayesian Semiparametric Modeling of Realized Covariance Matrices
Xin Jin & John M. Maheu

33_14 European Business Cycle Synchronization: a Complex Network Perspective
Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Georgios-Antonios Sarantitis

32_14 Yield curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework
Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou

31_14 Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis
Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu

30_14 Forecasting the U.S. Real House Price Index
Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou

29_14 A Novel Banking Supervision Method using the Minimum Dominating Set
Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Maria-Artemis Matthaiou

28_14 Economic Growth in the Potterian Economy
Avichai Snir & Daniel Levy

27_14 The effect of code-share agreements on the temporal profile of airline fares
Marco Alderighi & Alberto A. Gaggero & Claudio A. Piga

26_14 Universal Basic Income versus Unemployment Insurance
by Alice Fabre & Stéphane Pallage & Christian Zimmermann

25_14 Inequality and trust: new evidence from panel data
Guglielmo Barone & Sauro Mocetti

24_14 Analysis of The Seeds of Debt Crisis in Europe
Haluk Yener & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan

23_14 Political competition, power allocation and welfare in unitary and federal systems
Marco Alderighi & Christophe Feder

22_14 Government Transfers, Work and Occupational Identity: Evidence from the Russian Old-Age Pension
Louise Grogan & Fraser Summerfield

21_14 Global liquidity, money growth and UK inflation
Michael Ellington & Costas Milas

20_14 Robust Determinants of Intergenerational Mobility in the Land of Opportunity
Andros Kourtellos & Christa Marr & Chih Ming Tan

19_14 Efficient Bayesian Inference in Generalized Inverse Gamma Processes for Stochastic Volatility
Roberto Leon-Gonzalez

18_14 International portfolio allocation with European fixed-income funds: What scope for Italian funds?
Paolo Zagaglia

17_14 The Costs of Occupational Mobility: An Aggregate Analysis
Guido Matias Cortes & Giovanni Gallipoli

16_14 On the Cyclicality of Schooling Decisions: Evidence from Canadian Data
Diana Alessandrini

15_14 Asymmetry and Lilien’s Sectoral Shifts Hypothesis: A Quantile Regression Approach
Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni

14_14 Cultural Offer and Distance in a Spatial Interaction Model for Tourism
Roberto Patuelli & Maurizio Mussoni & Guido Candela

13_14 Financial Stress and the Impact of Public Debt on UK Growth in High versus Low-Growth Regimes: 1850-2013
Costas Milas

12_14 Capacity Choice and Welfare under Alternative Unionisation Structures
Luciano Fanti & Nicola Meccheri

11_14 The Effects of Central Bank Independence and Inflation Targeting on Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from Natural Experiments
Michael Parkin

10_14 The Urban-Rural Divide: Perceptions of Inequality in Central and Eastern Europe
Chiara Binelli & Matthew Loveless

09_14 Robust Multiple Regimes in Growth Volatility
Andros Kourtellos & Ioanna Stylianou & Chih Ming Tan

08_14 Sins of the Father: The Intergenerational Legacy of the 1959-61 Great Chinese Famine on Children’s Cognitive Development
Chih Ming Tan & Zhibo Tan & Xiaobo Zhang

07_14 Green Technology and Optimal Emissions Taxation
Stuart McDonald & Joanna Poyago-Theotoky

06_14 Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World
Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro

05_14 Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?
Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang

04_14 Socially Responsible and Conventional Investment Funds: Performance Comparison and the Global Financial Crisis
Leonardo Becchetti & Rocco Ciciretti & Ambrogio Dalo & Stefano Herzel

03_14 Is There a Cooperative Bank Difference?
Leonardo Becchetti & Rocco Ciciretti & Adriana Paolantonio

02_14 Foreign Exchange Risk and the Predictability of Carry Trade Returns
Gino Cenedese & Lucio Sarno & Ilias Tsiakas

01_14 Parenthood and Productivity of Highly Skilled Labor: Evidence from the Groves of Academe
Matthias Krapf & Heinrich W. Ursprung & Christian Zimmermann